| Source | UN (World Population Prospects 2024) |
| Date | 11 Oct 2026 |
Australia is the most populous country in Oceania, followed by Papua New Guinea. These are the only two countries in the region with populations exceeding 10 million. New Zealand is the only other country with a population above one million. Together, Australia and Papua New Guinea account for 81% of the Oceania population, while the top three countries account for 92%. Tuvalu is the least populous country in Oceania, while Niue is the least populous territory in the region.
Most countries and territories in Oceania have relatively small populations. None ranks among the world’s 50 most populous countries and territories, and only two feature in the top 100 of the global population rankings.
Of the 23 countries and territories in Oceania, 15 are projected to experience population growth in 2026, while the remaining eight are expected to see declines. Australia is expected to record the largest population increase, adding 248K people, followed by Papua New Guinea with 184K. The Marshall Islands is projected to experience the largest population decline, followed by American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Tokelau is projected to have the highest population growth rate in Oceania in 2026, at 2.60%, followed by the Solomon Islands at 2.30%. Five countries and territories are expected to record growth rates above 1%. Three Oceanian countries and territories rank among the world’s 50 fastest-growing countries and territories. At the other end of the spectrum, the Marshall Islands is projected to have the lowest growth rate, at −3.28%. Five Oceanian countries and territories rank among the world’s ten steepest population declines.
Since 1950, the populations of four Oceanian countries and territories have each increased more than sixfold. In 1950, New Zealand was the second-most populous country in Oceania, ahead of Papua New Guinea, which currently ranks second. Papua New Guinea is projected to maintain this position through 2100.
Nauru was the least populous country in Oceania in 1950, while Palau is projected to become the least populous by 2100.
| Code | Country/Region | Population | Share (%) | Rank | Growth (2026) | Growth Rank | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | Oceania | World | Oceania | World | Net | % | Oceania | World | ||
| AUS | Australia | 26,974,026 | 27,227,096 | 57.8 | 0.328 | 1 | 55 | 248,016 | 0.91 | 6 | 103 |
| NZL | New Zealand | 5,251,899 | 5,287,479 | 11.2 | 0.0637 | 3 | 126 | 34,508 | 0.65 | 9 | 122 |
| FJI | Fiji | 933,154 | 937,282 | 1.99 | 0.0113 | 4 | 162 | 3,993 | 0.43 | 13 | 142 |
| NCL | New Caledonia | 295,333 | 297,892 | 0.632 | 0.00359 | 7 | 185 | 2,473 | 0.83 | 7 | 110 |
| PNG | Papua New Guinea | 10,762,817 | 10,947,848 | 23.2 | 0.132 | 2 | 89 | 184,312 | 1.68 | 4 | 60 |
| SLB | Solomon Islands | 838,645 | 858,288 | 1.82 | 0.0103 | 5 | 165 | 19,707 | 2.30 | 2 | 29 |
| VUT | Vanuatu | 335,169 | 342,564 | 0.727 | 0.00413 | 6 | 182 | 7,392 | 2.16 | 3 | 33 |
| GUM | Guam | 168,999 | 170,185 | 0.361 | 0.00205 | 10 | 192 | 1,174 | 0.69 | 8 | 121 |
| KIR | Kiribati | 136,488 | 138,445 | 0.294 | 0.00167 | 11 | 193 | 1,954 | 1.41 | 5 | 72 |
| MHL | Marshall Islands | 36,282 | 35,075 | 0.0744 | 0.00042 | 16 | 220 | -1,150 | -3.28 | 23 | 236 |
| FSM | Micronesia (Fed. States of) | 113,683 | 114,183 | 0.242 | 0.00138 | 12 | 196 | 489 | 0.43 | 12 | 141 |
| NRU | Nauru | 12,025 | 12,101 | 0.0257 | 0.00015 | 19 | 227 | 77 | 0.64 | 10 | 123 |
| MNP | Northern Mariana Islands | 43,541 | 42,914 | 0.0911 | 0.00052 | 15 | 215 | -560 | -1.30 | 20 | 233 |
| PLW | Palau | 17,663 | 17,614 | 0.0374 | 0.00021 | 17 | 224 | -53 | -0.30 | 16 | 195 |
| ASM | American Samoa | 46,029 | 45,319 | 0.0962 | 0.00055 | 14 | 213 | -699 | -1.54 | 21 | 234 |
| COK | Cook Islands | 13,263 | 12,826 | 0.0272 | 0.00015 | 18 | 226 | -418 | -3.26 | 22 | 235 |
| PYF | French Polynesia | 282,465 | 283,076 | 0.601 | 0.00341 | 8 | 186 | 586 | 0.21 | 15 | 161 |
| NIU | Niue | 1,821 | 1,822 | 0.00387 | 0.00002 | 23 | 236 | 6 | 0.33 | 14 | 155 |
| WSM | Samoa | 219,306 | 220,528 | 0.468 | 0.00266 | 9 | 189 | 1,224 | 0.56 | 11 | 129 |
| TKL | Tokelau | 2,608 | 2,691 | 0.00571 | 0.00003 | 22 | 235 | 70 | 2.60 | 1 | 19 |
| TON | Tonga | 103,742 | 103,291 | 0.219 | 0.00124 | 13 | 199 | -442 | -0.43 | 17 | 202 |
| TUV | Tuvalu | 9,492 | 9,362 | 0.0199 | 0.00011 | 21 | 230 | -116 | -1.24 | 19 | 232 |
| WLF | Wallis and Futuna Islands | 11,194 | 11,113 | 0.0236 | 0.00013 | 20 | 229 | -80 | -0.72 | 18 | 218 |
| Oceania | 46,609,644 | 47,118,993 | 0.57 | 502,463 | 1.07 | ||||||
| Code | Country/Region | 1950 | 2000 | 2050 | 2100 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | Rank | Population | Rank | Population | Rank | Population | Rank | ||
| AUS | Australia | 8,176,750 | 1 | 19,132,471 | 1 | 32,506,969 | 1 | 43,143,685 | 1 |
| NZL | New Zealand | 1,911,263 | 2 | 3,857,574 | 3 | 5,755,288 | 3 | 5,812,293 | 3 |
| FJI | Fiji | 309,514 | 4 | 840,909 | 4 | 1,000,261 | 5 | 879,377 | 5 |
| NCL | New Caledonia | 63,790 | 8 | 223,098 | 7 | 340,580 | 7 | 337,221 | 8 |
| PNG | Papua New Guinea | 1,543,429 | 3 | 5,537,064 | 2 | 14,906,590 | 2 | 18,640,541 | 2 |
| SLB | Solomon Islands | 108,634 | 5 | 440,469 | 5 | 1,309,110 | 4 | 1,849,209 | 4 |
| VUT | Vanuatu | 51,541 | 10 | 186,281 | 8 | 534,388 | 6 | 875,479 | 6 |
| GUM | Guam | 60,776 | 9 | 160,065 | 10 | 191,458 | 10 | 205,502 | 10 |
| KIR | Kiribati | 37,846 | 12 | 88,613 | 13 | 182,621 | 11 | 222,645 | 9 |
| MHL | Marshall Islands | 12,996 | 16 | 50,706 | 16 | 25,195 | 16 | 23,805 | 16 |
| FSM | Micronesia (Fed. States of) | 32,106 | 13 | 112,044 | 11 | 126,408 | 12 | 128,142 | 12 |
| NRU | Nauru | 3,407 | 22 | 10,168 | 20 | 15,758 | 17 | 20,663 | 17 |
| MNP | Northern Mariana Islands | 7,111 | 19 | 68,356 | 14 | 42,764 | 14 | 41,611 | 14 |
| PLW | Palau | 7,474 | 18 | 19,178 | 17 | 15,518 | 18 | 11,126 | 19 |
| ASM | American Samoa | 19,043 | 14 | 56,855 | 15 | 37,545 | 15 | 32,294 | 15 |
| COK | Cook Islands | 14,693 | 15 | 15,854 | 18 | 9,337 | 21 | 7,904 | 20 |
| PYF | French Polynesia | 64,343 | 7 | 240,337 | 6 | 284,750 | 8 | 186,863 | 11 |
| NIU | Niue | 4,497 | 21 | 2,047 | 22 | 1,966 | 23 | 2,393 | 23 |
| WSM | Samoa | 88,281 | 6 | 181,685 | 9 | 272,726 | 9 | 383,557 | 7 |
| TKL | Tokelau | 1,592 | 23 | 1,845 | 23 | 3,821 | 22 | 4,370 | 22 |
| TON | Tonga | 49,660 | 11 | 102,677 | 12 | 105,195 | 13 | 117,871 | 13 |
| TUV | Tuvalu | 4,765 | 20 | 9,544 | 21 | 9,781 | 20 | 12,269 | 18 |
| WLF | Wallis and Futuna Islands | 8,536 | 17 | 14,784 | 19 | 10,148 | 19 | 6,878 | 21 |
| Oceania | 12,582,044 | 31,352,624 | 57,688,178 | 72,945,697 | |||||